Winter Weather Outlook

After an unseasonably warm Autumn, with April felling records left, right and centre for temperatures, May came along and reminded us that it sure does get cold in Australia! So, what’s ahead for us in Winter?

According to the Bureau of Meteorology, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean is neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña) and is expected to remain neutral through the coming season. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also neutral, with the possibility of a negative IOD event forming during winter. The IOD is is measured by the sustained changes in the difference between sea surface temperatures of the tropical western and eastern Indian Ocean.  A negative IOD is where we see westerly winds intensify along the equator, allowing warmer waters to concentrate near Australia. This sets up a temperature difference across the tropical Indian Ocean, with warmer than normal water in the east and cooler than normal water in the west.

With mostly neutral climate drivers, there is no strong push towards broadscale wetter or drier conditions across the country. In summation, we should expect average rainfall totals across the country but there is always the chance that certain locations will get more, while others, get less.

June is a typically dry month for our part of the world, on average we have five days of rainfall in the month with approximately 45mm falling during the entirety of the month. July and August follow a similar path in terms of rainfall, with it slightly declining from each previous month until the start of storm season in October.

Night-time temperatures are expected to be cooler than average for eastern Queensland, make sure you have your ugg boots handy!

For more information about the Winter Weather Outlook, visit the Bureau of Meteorology.