Picture the scenario – A 67 year old man born in the Middle East but now living in Australia and worth in excess of $18M, courts and convinces a 36 year old non-English speaking Middle Eastern woman to marry and live with him here in Australia. With neither money nor employable skills, the woman and her family are brought to Australia for the wedding and just days before the ceremony, she is presented with a Pre-Nuptial agreement and told – the wedding is off if she does not sign it. With little choice the ‘Pre-Nup’ is signed, the marriage occurs and lasts almost 10 years before it becomes unhappy. Under the ‘Pre-Nup’, the woman receives a pittance if she separates and according to established Australian law, the agreement can only be broken if she can prove it was signed under ‘duress’ meaning a level of pressure akin to a gun put to her head. However, a chance conversation with a hairdresser leads the woman to engage a small town law firm who then pairs up with an aging (semi-retired) barrister, and together, they fight it all the way to the High Court of Australia eventually winning the case and rewriting the law on ‘Pre-nups’ in the process.
Sounds like the script for a movie?
Well, in scenes highly reminiscent of Darryl Kerrigan in the 1997 classic Australian movie “The Castle”, all of the above played out in the case of Thorne v Kennedy which was decided by the High Court late last year.
For anyone seeking to escape the shackles of an unfair ‘Pre-Nup’, Thorne v Kennedy means it is now no longer necessary to prove that extreme pressure (like a gun to the head) was applied and that instead, in certain circumstances, financial destitution – such as uncertainty as to where the next meal might be coming from – can be sufficient. In coming to the decision, the High Court identified six factors that it said would be relevant in any challenge to any ‘Pre-Nup’:
1. Whether the agreement presented as a “not open to negotiation” proposition;
2. The emotional circumstances in play at the time of signing. For example, a threat to cancel a wedding or an engagement;
3. Whether there was adequate time allowed for careful reflection;
4. The nature of the parties’ relationship;
5. The relative financial positions of the parties
6. The independent advice that was received and whether there was adequate time to reflect on that advice.
All up, a great victory against the odds for the little guy and a big message to anyone thinking to abuse ‘Pre-Nup’ laws to think again!
Joshua Noble is an Associate at Zande Law Solicitors, Suite 7, Norwinn Centre, 15 Discovery Drive, North Lakes. To contact Josh for advice, please phone (07) 3385 0999.
The information in this article is merely a guide and not a full explanation of the law. This firm cannot take responsibility for any action readers take based on this information. When making decisions that could affect your legal rights, please contact us for professional advice.
The North Lakes Community has recently welcomed a fresh face to its business community! Eternal Youth Australia opened its doors and promises patients to help them in turning back the clock with its revolutionary skin treatments which are currently taking the entire world by storm.
Leisa Scott, founder of Eternal Youth, stated “I’ve been in the beauty industry for decades, and determined that our area was lacking a high-end anti-aging clinic which only specialises in cutting edge treatments designed to help turn back the clock!”
Since opening the doors, Leisa has been booked out and continues to be booked well in advance for her unique non-surgical treatments.
“I’ve been overwhelmed by the influx of customers to Eternal Youth – which confirms my thoughts that people want a non-surgical option to anti-aging, and they also want it right here in North Lakes.”
Eternal Youth is the only clinic in North Lakes which currently offers the popular soft-surgical treatment HIFU, and also PlasmaLift technology along with a variety of other in-demand anti-aging treatments.
“HIFU is a much sought-after treatment as clients are getting amazing results without having to undergo surgery.” Leisa stated. “And, our PlasmaLift treatments are super-popular too, giving clients a true option. Now they don’t have to undergo costly surgery to be able to get skin-lifting – and downtime is minimal in comparison.”
Eternal Youth is located in the Specialist Medical Centre directly opposite Westfield – and offers you easy and free parking for their modern clinic.
The State Government has announced it will cover the costs of training for Queensland year twelve graduates who start a high priority qualification at TAFE.
If you are getting ready to graduate Year twelve in 2018 or finished school in 2017, you can kick-start your career by getting the skills employers want without the fees!
The one hundred and sixty high priority qualification courses available under the free TAFE program range from Construction and Aviation, through to Childcare and Tourism.
“This will change the lives of many eighteen year olds in Bancroft,” said Chris Whiting MP.
“Queensland’s tourism and hospitality industry continues to grow with projects like Queen’s Wharf and the Brisbane Airport Second runway.
“It is forecast that tourism and hospitality alone will need over twenty thousand more people in jobs by 2020.
“Free TAFE courses will give our kids the best opportunity to get these future jobs, as well as job in other growth industries.
“Free TAFE is a practical measure from the Palaszczuk government that signals to kids that higher education is not out of reach for them.
“It will encourage them to believe that further education is a right available to all.
“With only thirteen per cent of students in the Moreton Bay region going on to University, compared to more than fifty per cent in inner Brisbane, this measure will change the futures of participants,” said Chris Whiting.
To be eligible for free TAFE, you must:
– Have completed Year twelve in Queensland and hold a Senior Statement issued by the Queensland Curriculum and Assessment Authority or equivalent certification
– Enrol and start an apprenticeship, traineeship or training with an approved training provider in a high priority qualification by 31 December the year after graduating (e.g. 2017 graduates have to – start by 31 December 2018)
– Permanently reside in Queensland
– Eligibility rules also apply.
For more information on the Free TAFE program, including eligibility, and a full course list visit: www.training.qld.gov.au/freetafe
Dear Alice, I’m a thirty-two year old single cat-mum. Recently I found out that my father has been having an affair for the last two years. My mum knows everything and she wants to work it out. They haven’t been happy for years and I don’t understand how my mum could stay. The whole situation shocked me and shattered my perception of relationships. I’ve become so depressed I find myself laying on the floor staring at the ceiling for hours on end. I’ve slowly been isolating myself not only from my family but from my friends, I just don’t want to bother them. I just can’t move past this, I want to have a family one day but if it didn’t work out for my parents, how is it going to work out for me? Astrid
Hi Astrid, thank you for reaching out! Sounds like this new information has really floored you, pun intended. Generally, after a traumatic incident unfolds, people are left feeling quite exhausted. It sounds like this ordeal has really taken its toll. If you are waiting to understand your parents behaviour, you may be waiting a while. There comes a time when you have to come to terms with the fact that your parents are inherently flawed, just like everyone else. When your loved ones act in a way that you don’t agree with, it can be frustrating. It’s important to respect your parents as the masters of their own lives, as individuals that make their own choices. Sure you don’t agree with their choices, but that’s besides the point, they have their own free will and at some point you need to accept that their choices aren’t really your responsibility. This realisation can come at an early age for some people, others it comes much later, but the point is that it is a normal part of life. All you can do is give them the space and privacy to carry on with their lives, you don’t need to agree with it, but perhaps consider providing unconditional support (even if it’s only within your mind). Another milestone of becoming an adult is when the child becomes the parent, this can take many forms and again is something that happens at a different pace for everyone. It’s the moment you realise that your parents are reliant on you. It’s when you become the matriarch and the leader. When you feel that power, and see your parents growing older, you will realise that you are not in their shadow anymore. You are a fully-grown adult that can make their own choices, whose outcome is not dependent on their past. Your life is not going to turn out the same way that your parents did, if you don’t want it to. You are the next generation, you have learnt from their mistakes and your lineage will continue to grow from one generation to the next. Find this power within yourself, become an active participant in your destiny and nothing will stop you from becoming who you want to be. Another issue you touched on was that of isolation from others, this is troubling. Something that I have noticed over many conversations is that it seems like a habit we are all guilty of perpetuating. It’s a negative feedback loop that traps you in isolation and loneliness. You need to immediately reach out, even though you don’t feel like it. It’s ok to say to friends, “I’m not doing so well right now and I need you to sit with me in this moment”. You don’t need to hide your pain or struggle, as suffering is the one thing we all have in common. It’s easy to believe that everyone is busy and happy in this age of image crafting and perception management, but don’t forget the human condition is the same for us all, we all hurt sometimes. Push yourself to socialise a little bit more each day, maybe start with a text, then a phone call, invite someone to lay on the floor next to you. Whatever you do, remember that we are all in this together. This is your time now, you are the leader of your journey. We have a wonderful community full of supportive people just waiting to hear from you. Don’t wait, feel the fear and do it anyway.
The risk that plastic pollution poses to the world’s declining sea turtle populations has been quantified for the first time.
Analysis by the CSIRO and USC of nearly 1,000 turtles found dead and washed up on beaches around Australia showed the more plastic a turtle consumed the greater the likelihood that it would be killed by that plastic.
The scientists found that a turtle had a twenty-two percent chance of dying if it ate just one piece of plastic. Once a turtle had 14 plastic items in its gut, there was a 50 percent likelihood that it would die.
“Even a single piece of plastic can kill a turtle,” said University of the Sunshine Coast marine biologist Dr Kathy Townsend.
“Two of the turtles we studied had eaten only one piece of plastic which was enough to kill them. In one case, the gut was punctured and in the other the soft plastic clogged the gut,” she said.
Previously, it was unclear as to whether the plastic in oceans was killing sea turtles or whether they were ingesting it without significant harm.
“We knew that turtles were consuming a lot of plastic, but we didn’t know for certain whether that plastic actually caused the turtles’ deaths, or whether the turtles just happened to have plastic in them when they died,” Chief Research Scientist with CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Dr Chris Wilcox said.
“In other words, we wanted to know how much plastic was too much plastic for sea turtles,” he said.
Sea turtles were among the first animals recorded to be ingesting plastic debris, a phenomenon that occurs in every region of the world and in all seven marine turtle species.
Globally it is estimated that approximately 52 percent of all sea turtles have eaten plastic. Determining the effect this is having on turtle mortality is an important step towards understanding the impact of plastic pollution on sea turtle populations.
“Millions of tonnes of plastic debris is entering our world’s oceans on a yearly basis,” Dr Wilcox said.
“The model we’ve developed can be adapted to help us understand the impact of plastic ingestion not just on individuals but on whole populations of other endangered marine species.
“The better we understand the issue, the better equipped we are to address the problem and work towards viable, scalable solutions.”
Image 1: One of the first meals eaten by this sea turtle post-hatchling turned out to be deadly. It died from consuming over 20 tiny pieces of plastic, many of which were about the same size as a grain of rice
Image 2: USC researcher Dr Kathy Townsend conducts a necropsy on a dead sea turtle.
Image 3: This tiny green sea turtle ended up consuming over 40 difference pieces of plastic, ranging from plastic bags, bits of hard plastic, duct tape and balloons.
Moreton Bay Regional Council and local frontline emergency services are urging families to be prepared for severe storms, flash flooding and bushfires as part of Get Ready Week, October 8 to 14.
Historical photos of severe weather in the region have been unveiled as part of the campaign, which is calling on local families to be prepared, whatever the weather.
Local Disaster Management Group Chair Councillor Peter Flannery said the photos demonstrated the aftermath of severe weather events like the 1974 floods, 1954 Cyclone and more recent events including the 2015 flood events, where close to 300mm of rain fell in just three hours in the northern parts of our region.
“The images show Moreton Bay is no stranger to severe weather and that Moreton Bay families need to be ready for storms, flash flooding and bushfires,” Cr Flannery said.
“All it takes is a couple of hours this Get Ready Week to make sure you and your family are ready. If you don’t know where to start, council’s website offers plenty of handy information to make sure you’re ready, including tips on preparing your home and finding out your flood risk. Just head to www.moretonbay.qld.gov/disaster
“You can also sign up for free emergency alerts about severe weather in your local area with council’s MoretonAlert service.
“With MoretonAlert you’ll receive up-to-date information on storms, bushfires and planned dam releases via SMS, email and voice message.”
State Member for Morayfield Mark Ryan said while local police and emergency services are on-hand during times of severe weather, it’s important that families Get Ready.
“Making sure you’re well prepared ahead of storm season means it’s less likely police and emergency services personnel will have to risk their lives during a severe storm, flood or bushfire,” Mr Ryan said.
The Lions Club of North Lakes Inc were very proud to host their 5th Children of Courage Awards Ceremony at The Lakes College in North Lakes on Saturday 11th August 2018 at 2pm.
The Club welcomed six wonderful children who were recognized for their courage and strength of character, in dealing with their challenges every day.
District Governor Carmel Goldsworthy presented the Awards together with Sherillee McDougall representing Luke Howarth, Federal Member for Petrie, and Councillor Julie Greer representing the Moreton Bay Regional Council and District Chairman Diane Unwin helped with other presentations.
We were joined by family and friends who made the afternoon a great success. We had a great audience who appreciated what these young children have gone through, and continue to go through in their daily lives, a credit to their parents and teachers and certainly very special Children of Courage.
The Club would like to thank The Lakes College for the use of their facilities and help in organizing this special day. Following the Ceremony there was a popular family photograph session. Then the guests, children and families enjoyed the fabulous party spread created by the Club’s catering committee.
Five children received their Awards in the Special Needs Category and one child received a Sibling Recognition Award.
The Lions Club of North Lakes Inc were very proud to host their 5th Children of Courage Awards Ceremony at The Lakes College in North Lakes on Saturday 11th August 2018 at 2pm. The Club welcomed six wonderful children who were recognized for their courage and strength of character, in dealing with their challenges every day.
District Governor Carmel Goldsworthy presented the Awards together with Sherillee McDougall representing Luke Howarth, Federal Member for Petrie, and Councillor Julie Greer representing the Moreton Bay Regional Council and District Chairman Diane Unwin helped with other presentations.
We were joined by family and friends who made the afternoon a great success. We had a great audience who appreciated what these young children have gone through, and continue to go through in their daily lives, a credit to their parents and teachers and certainly very special Children of Courage.
The Club would like to thank The Lakes College for the use of their facilities and help in organizing this special day. Following the Ceremony there was a popular family photograph session. Then the guests, children and families enjoyed the fabulous party spread created by the Club’s catering committee.
The inaugural Melbourne Cup was held in 1861 and was run on Thursday the 7th of November.
Melbourne Cup Day became a half day holiday from as early as 1865, with public servants and bank officials given time off to watch the big race. This tradition has endured to this day, with millions of Australians taking long lunches for the races that stops the nation.
The present record holder to date, is the 1990 winner Kingston Rule with a time of 3:16.30.
Archer was the name of the first horse ever to win the Cup, in a time of 3:52.00. Archer also won the Melbourne Cup the following year. He never had the opportunity to race in 1863, after being scratched from the race based on a technicality in relation to correspondence.
The 1880 event was the first Melbourne Cup to attract 100,000 spectators.
The first Melbourne Cup did not start off well, with one horse bolting before the start and three of the seventeen starters falling during the race. Two of these horses died because of these falls, possibly an ill-omen for future races that has seen the event receive bad publicity in recent years.
Phar Lap, arguably the most famous horse to win the Cup, won the 1930 Melbourne Cup, at the shortest odds in the history of the race at 11/8. Phar Lap also competed in the 1929 and 1931 events, but could only managed to come 3rd and 8th respectively despite also being the favourite on these occasions.
The winning amount for the first race has been lost in the halls of history. Due to possibly a typo, or misinformation from the newspapers in circulation at the time, it’s thought the prize could have been maybe £170 or £710. Other records indicate that the Victoria Turf Club threw in £200, taking the share up to £910. One thing is for sure, a gold watch was part of the prize!
For more great reads like this one, click here to read the October edition of North Lakes Now online.
What can we expect to see in abundance on the field this season?
All the shades of purple is a hot season favourite! Purple is such a versatile colour, being a secondary colour, a shade can easily be found to suit skin tone. A red based purple will suit warmer skin tones, while a blue based purple will suit those with the cooler skin tones.
In 2017 we saw the fun jumpsuit become incredibly popular after the stunning Jennifer Hawkins showed off her incredible figure in a hot, red jumpsuit from the previous season. This season, we see it taken up a notch with block colour tailored suits (think mens suits) taking the stage.
Spring racing season is synonymous with femininity, a popular look that is holding strong is sheer detailing. A shorter dress with a mid-length lace overlay is a good look, tulle and chiffon are also contenders for the season.
Floral, lace, frills and all things girly are sure fire winners! Block colours and bold prints will also be prominent.
Ostrich feathers are a different feature to have made an appearance on the runway recently, if you can make it work for you, why not experiment? Isn’t that part of the fun of dressing for a Spring racing carnival?
If in doubt, classic elegance is TIMELESS.
For more great content from the October edition of North Lakes Now, click here to read the magazine online.
Imagine life without a childhood. Imagine entering the world as a near-adult, a 15-year-old who can make breakfast, start a job, and navigate the trials and tribulations of everyday life – all without having to hold a parent’s hand.
This is the youth of the Australian brushturkey (Alectura lathami).
Brushturkeys are superprecocial birds; when they hatch and dig out of the mound, without any parental supervision, they are fully feathered and immediately fend for themselves. They can even fly (as well as a brushturkey can fly, anyway) within hours! Brushturkeys and their closest relatives are remarkable; no other chicks are so developed when they leave the egg.
Although it seems like they’d be adept at escaping predators, brushturkey chick mortality is very high. Therefore, the advantage to being precocial must lie elsewhere. Perhaps helpless altricial chicks would always be eaten all the time – some survivors is better than none – or perhaps adults can breed more often because they don’t need to invest weeks of care into each brood.
While they’re busy doing a little more growing and getting their adult plumage, brushturkey chicks are just as capable as their parents. This notable reproductive strategy has allowed them to thrive for millennia.
North Lakes local, Branden Wittchen, graduated from Griffith Film School in 2017 and his career since has mostly consisted of directing music videos for such clients as Tia Gostelow (Triple J Unearthed High and Qld Music Award Winner) and Ian ‘Dicko’ Dickson (Australian Idol). He is also a multi-award winning filmmaker who wrote and directed short films starring renowned Australian character actors Gyton Grantley (The Dressmaker, Underbelly, House Husbands) and Roy Billing (Jack Irish, The Dish, Underbelly).
His latest production, Remus and Ron, tells the story of how Remus, a 35-year-old eccentric and awkward man, ended up in the back of a Police car, arrested for murder. Remus reflects on his childhood and reminisces on how he turned out so different from his identical twin brother Ron, despite being inflicted the same bizarre and abusive upbringing. Exploring themes of nurture vs nature and twisting the stereotypes of a conventional serial thriller, Remus and Ron is a dark and disturbing look at how one twin could be so evil and the other so caring.
The twins will be played by a single actor opposite himself on screen. The three stages of Remus and Ron’s lives (childhood, teens, and adulthood) will be portrayed by three different actors as the twins at each stage. Thus, three actors will play the six characters.
This is an opportunity for the cast to show off their acting skills but also, this short will be a big step up in the crew’s future career as feature filmmakers. Despite having multiple award winning short film credits, the crew are currently in a grey zone of too inexperienced to receive Government funding but without funding can’t gain that needed experience.
My name is Zak Streeter, I’m fifteen years old and I’m in Grade Ten at North Lakes State College.
My love of sport began at three years of age, when my parents started me in Taekwondo at Factor 10. I was there for five years and became a Cho Dan Bo at eight years old. Since that I’ve tried swimming, soccer, tennis and competed at a State level at school for athletics.
My love of CrossFit began about eighteen months ago at CrossFit 786 with coach Ozzie. It wasn’t long after we had moved back to the Northside and I began my coaching with Michael at Unbound Athletic and CrossFit Speed, that I decided my goal was to make the CrossFit Games 2018. I trained consistently in that time, slowly building up my strength and focusing on my weaknesses. A few months prior to the CrossFit Open I also started working with Brendan, a lifting coach at CrossFit Geebung to purely focus on my technique.
In preparation, I competed at two competitions at CrossFit Speed. One being a paired competition, which we came 4th. The other, which consisted of a team of three, including myself, placed 2nd. I have also been working with BoxFit apparel as a brand ambassador, partaking in numerous modeling shoots.
Fast forward to the CrossFit Open 2018. I needed to place in the top two hundred worldwide to make the Online Qualifier (Regionals). I did five workouts over five weeks and place 80th worldwide, securing a spot in the Online Qualifier.
The Online Qualifier consisted of four workouts over four days to be performed at my own box, judged by Michael, filmed and uploaded with my times. To make to CrossFit Games 2018, I needed to place top twenty worldwide. Overall I ended up placing 64th, obviously not the result I was hoping for but nevertheless extremely happy with my result leaving me hungrier to achieve my goal in 2019.
TEAM UTOPIA
Having gone through the necessary evolution and experimentation all the best bands go through, singer, songwriter and guitarist Dan Nebe can now proudly say, “Will you please welcome the Band – Team Utopia – lead guitarist Mick Bristow from The Pretty Fingers, bass player Amanda Emblem, notorious from her roles in Diva Demolition and Legless, and drummer Sue Kennet (ex-Never The Sane).”
Team Utopia was born in the mind and heart of Redcliffe native, Nebe, back in 2011 and has seen some impressive musicians pass through its ranks to this point, not least legendary guitarist Bob Spencer (ex-Finch, Skyhooks, Angels), who played with the band for much of last year, before receiving an offer to join Rose Tattoo he could hardly refuse. Spencer featured on Team Utopia’s last two singles, including the first single, Strips Off My Soul, to be lifted off their forthcoming debut EP, I Never Said I Was Peter Pan, currently being recorded and mixed in Sydney’s Damien Gerard Studios with engineer/producer extraordinaire Russell Pilling, whose CV includes records by Radio Birdman, The Church, Jon Stevens and The Cruel Sea. The EP is due for release online through Brisbane-based Wild Weather Records.
“Having Amanda and Sue, a female rhythm section,” Nebe admits proudly, “is just amazing. They just rock! The three of us just work so well together and lock in tight. Having Bob in there was great – we had to lift our game, and that was the best part of that experience, and having him agree to play on the EP was fantastic. But Mick Bristow is amazing. We’ve been great mates for a long time. Bob has a certain presence on stage, but Mick goes to the next level and he’s taken us to the next level as well.”
One of the songs on that forthcoming EP is the current single, Calling Out To The Masses, a song about our need to stick by each other to try and facilitate change in this increasingly chaotic world. That’s something Team Utopia have tried to do in their own small way on a local level with their commitment to the annual Redcliffe-based funds and awareness-raising benefit concert, Rockin’ 4 The Homeless, over the past five years.
Over the past few years, as well as sharing stages with acts as diverse as America’s Richie Ramone – yes, drummer with New York’s legendary Ramones! – and New Zealand’s Bonjah, Team Utopia have played alongside local heroes The Radiators and Mental As Anything among many, as well as festivals like the Mitchell Creek Rock’n’Blues. At this year’s Rockin’ 4 The Homeless, they shared the stage with Diana Anaid and The Hoodoo Gurus, along with many other acts.
Earlier this year, Team Utopia had the very pleasurable honour to perform at this year’s four-day Way Out West Festival in Winton, alongside The Living End, Jessica Mauboy, Russell Morris, The Black Sorrows and fellow Brisbanites Sheppard, all part of the celebrations at the rebirth of the Waltzing Matilda Centre at the Winton Hotel.
Head on down to Thirsty Chiefs, on Saturday, October 13 from 4pm to watch Team Utopia perform along with Upsize and The Gastons for high octane arvo/night of ROCK!
So far, 2018 has been very warm and exceptionally dry over large parts of mainland Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology’s climate outlook for spring, released last month, shows that significant widespread relief is unlikely.
The chance of a spring El Niño, along with other climate drivers, is likely to mean below-average rainfall for large parts of the country in the coming months.
A dry winter for most of Australia
Winter rainfall has been below average over most of Australia’s eastern mainland. Large parts of New South Wales are on track to have winter rainfall in the lowest 10% of records. This has compounded drought conditions in the east after mixed rainfall last year and a dry start to 2018 for much of the country.
But it’s not just the lack of rainfall that has made the impact of drought severe. Another factor was the warmer than average daytime temperatures.
The 2017-18 summer average temperature was Australia’s second-warmest in 108 years of records, while autumn was Australia’s fourth-warmest on record. Winter 2018 is likely to be among the five warmest winters on record in terms of maximum temperatures.
Many of the above-average daytime temperatures have been focused over the country’s southeast. In fact, South Australia, New South Wales and Victoria are all on track for their warmest maximum temperatures for the January to August period.
The below-average rainfall combined with above-average maximum temperatures resulted in a rapid and intense drying of the landscape. This has led to unusually severe fire weather conditions in July and August – conditions more typically seen at the end of spring than the end of winter.
In contrast, low rainfall, cloud-free skies and dry soils mean it has been colder than usual overnight across most of the country during winter.
Climate conditions favour low rainfall
Will spring see a break in the warmer days and below average rainfall? Probably not. Both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), can be major influences on Australia’s seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns.
During winter, both ENSO and the IOD were neutral, meaning that neither of them provided a large influence on winter’s weather (so we can’t blame them this time).
However, most international climate models have been forecasting a spring El Niño since June. Sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific have been gradually warming since autumn and are rising towards El Niño thresholds. At the beginning of June the Bureau went on El Niño watch, which indicates a roughly 50% chance of El Niño forming in 2018 – double the usual likelihood. El Niño during spring typically means below-average rainfall across eastern and northern Australia.
Three out of five international models are forecasting that a positive Indian Ocean Dipole event is also possible this spring. A positive IOD during spring typically means below-average rainfall in central and southern Australia. When El Niño and a positive IOD coincide, their drying influences can be exacerbated.
So, what’s the outlook for spring?
With a reasonable chance of both El Niño developing and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, the outlook for spring shows below-average rainfall is likely over much of the southeast and parts of the northeast and southwest. The rest of the country has a neutral outlook, showing no strong push towards a wetter or drier than average three months.
Inland areas are typically dry at this time of year, so the neutral outlook in the arid interior typically implies that low rainfall is likely. No part of the country favours above-average rainfall in the spring outlook.
Spring days are likely to be warmer than average across Australia, with the highest chances (greater than 80%) over northern and western Australia. Most of the country is likely to have warmer than average nights this spring, except for areas around the Great Australian Bight which have roughly equal chances of warmer or cooler than average minimum temperatures.
What does this mean for the drought and bushfires?
Like the rest of the country, the Bureau is hoping that farmers in drought-affected areas get the rainfall they need soon. But this outlook isn’t the news many want to hear.
Last weekend’s rainfall over northeastern New South Wales and southeastern Queensland was welcomed by most, but unfortunately it was well short of what was required for a recovery from the longer-term rainfall deficits. Many locations on the east coast are well below their average year-to-date rainfall totals.
Rainfall deficiencies for the first seven months of 2018 in areas of western NSW, northwest Victoria and eastern South Australia widely show rainfall totals in the lowest 5% of the 118 years of record. It would take many months of above-average rainfall to return to average levels.
The above average temperatures in 2018 so far, combined with below average rainfall and dry vegetation, mean a higher likelihood of fire activity in parts of southern Australia. The warm and dry outlook for spring means the drought in parts of the country’s east is likely to continue.
Picture the scenario – A 67 year old man born in the Middle East but now living in Australia and worth in excess of $18M, courts and convinces a 36 year old non-English speaking Middle Eastern woman to marry and live with him here in Australia. With neither money nor employable skills, the woman and her family are brought to Australia for the wedding and just days before the ceremony, she is presented with a Pre-Nuptial agreement and told – the wedding is off if she does not sign it. With little choice the ‘Pre-Nup’ is signed, the marriage occurs and lasts almost 10 years before it becomes unhappy. Under the ‘Pre-Nup’, the woman receives a pittance if she separates and according to established Australian law, the agreement can only be broken if she can prove it was signed under ‘duress’ meaning a level of pressure akin to a gun put to her head. However, a chance conversation with a hairdresser leads the woman to engage a small town law firm who then pairs up with an aging (semi-retired) barrister, and together, they fight it all the way to the High Court of Australia eventually winning the case and rewriting the law on ‘Pre-nups’ in the process.
Joshua Noble is an Associate at Zande Law Solicitors, Suite 7, Norwinn Centre, 15 Discovery Drive, North Lakes. To contact Josh for advice, please phone (07) 3385 0999.
